Bitcoin's Price Nears ‘Golden Cross,’ but Will BTC Finally Conquer $10K?
The price of Bitcoin (BTC), the top cryptocurrency past market capitalization, is trading down 2.59% for today'south session at $ix,540, erasing the push towards $10,000 late on Thursday.
Ether (ETH), the 2d biggest crypto past market cap, is downward a little less by 1.72% and retesting the disquisitional $200 level, while XRP as well attempts to maintain a central level of $0.20.
Cryptocurrency marketplace 24-hour view. Source: Coin360
Ane-week nautical chart
The weekly candle chart for Bitcoin shows that it's currently trading in a higher place the high time frame resistance of $9,300, having recovered the majority of the 20% flash sell-off last weekend, where back up was constitute shut to the xx-week moving average.
The Moving Average Convergence Difference (MACD) indicator illustrates the upwards momentum and full general tendency reversal since the selloff in early on March.
Volumes have remained above average for the week, with two and a half days of trading remaining, highlighting the bullish response to accept the price of Bitcoin back across the $9,000 following concluding week's pre-halving driblet
Should the bulls break resistance around $10,000, a relatively fast motility to test $eleven,500 and the center of the range above would be the target although Bitcoin has not traded at these prices since August 2022.
BTC–USD one-week chart. Source: Tradingview
Ane-day nautical chart
The one-24-hour interval chart shows that BTC–USD is currently finding some support today at the $9,300 level after a sudden drop equally toll approached $10,000. In other words, Bitcoin has formed a lower high on the daily timeframe.
Concluding week, both the 100 and 200-mean solar day moving averages (MA) likewise acted as the showtime line of defense alongside the 20-calendar week MA. The fifty-day MA is on course to cross to a higher place both the 100 and 200-day moving averages before the end of the calendar month.
The so-called "gilded cross" typically signals to the market to await higher prices and will be positive for the Bitcoin bulls. Notwithstanding, Bitcoin has a tendency to initially react adversely to such a bullish sign.
BTC–USD 1-week nautical chart. Source: Tradingview
The MACD on the 1-mean solar day chart shows that it is threatening to cross bullish in a higher place zero, meaning that Bitcoin is by and large maintaining its bullish trend. Notwithstanding, similar the RSI, at that place is prove of weakness within the uptrend now as resistance has been confirmed at $ten,000.
The On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator also highlights a loss in the cumulative volume trend to the upside. The indicator bears the scars of the high volume breakdown last week and has non yet quite institute the bullish book to recover the upwardly tendency.
BTC–USD one-24-hour interval nautical chart. Source: Tradingview
4-hour nautical chart
The four-hour nautical chart highlights in more item the potential weakness described on the i-24-hour interval chart. Book over the concluding day topped out at a failed retest of $x,000, merely price remains supported above key resistance, which is very positive.
The four-60 minutes MACD, however, clearly demonstrates the downturn in momentum, which is as well supported past the Stoch-RSI that's also trending to the downside. Both hint that in that location may need to exist a consolidation to permit the indicators to reset.
As nosotros move into the CME close on Friday, traders may be looking to offload risk, especially given the sell-off on spot exchanges over last weekend. Therefore, toll action on Fri may be representative of such.
Should in that location be a selloff over the weekend in one case more, the bespeak of control effectually the $8,900 level would be the showtime to show real ownership interest equally the bulls battled to break the level all week.
BTC–USD four-hour chart. Source: Tradingview
A cursory look at a combined order book representing big buy and sell orders every bit a heat map on the below chart shows that there is a large amount of selling interest effectually the $10,000 level, which is effectively capping cost for now.
BTC–USD four-hour chart. Source: Bitcoinwisdom
Marketplace sentiment
The forrad curve for the futures price of Bitcoin remains in contango with the futures price being around i% higher than the present spot price for contracts ending in July.
This has steadily increased over the recent weeks demonstrating a more positive outlook for the price of Bitcoin in months to come. However, the premium on the time to come price at 1% is very low in comparison to previous bull runs and indicates that the bulls are non in a state of euphoria suggesting traders are more cautious this time around.
Listed BTC futures/perpetual swaps. Source: Skew
The CME futures chart shows that Open Interest (unsettled derivative contracts) is at all-time highs, crossing the $500m level, with involvement really ramping upwards since the selloff in March and being significantly higher than other notable highs at $x,000 and $14,000 back in 2022.
By and large speaking, open interest ascension as price increases is a positive sign as more money and attention are inbound the market.
As nosotros take seen previously, however, particularly high open interest on the CME and other derivative exchanges for Bitcoin has had an inverse relationship with the price soon thereafter.
Therefore, this increase at the CME is of item involvement every bit it has made highs at a critical point of resistance and indicates in that location may be an explosive upshot once the market has determined in which direction information technology intends to movement.
CME Bitcoin futures open interest. Source: Skew
A review of the Crypto Fear and Greed index shows that the market remains in a country of fear having recovered from somewhat understandable extreme fearfulness seen with the $4,000 bottom in March.
Despite having recovered significantly, the market sentiment clearly mirrors that of the futures market in demonstrating a bourgeois outlook on the toll past the public.
Crypto Feat & Greed index. Source: Alternative.me
Looking frontward
It is clear that involvement in the Bitcoin marketplace has continued to get together step and has overwhelmingly helped the price of Bitcoin recover speedily in recent months. This is encouraging for the market, demonstrating that there are plentiful mechanisms for the market to enable the arrival of liquidity.
Many new entrants to the market are betting on Bitcoin beingness a safe haven asset, over which remains some debate. Hence this being borne out in the open interest levels. The adjacent two weeks and the close of May will testify pivotal for the market, which will see the bulls and bears go along to battle over the $10,000 level with $ix,300 being a critical level for the bulls to break.
Bears having previously enjoyed brusk positions on Bitcoin from around $10,000 in the past will well-nigh likely be looking to button prices back down to the $6,500 level, which would be expected to be met with resilience from the bulls at $8,000. Whereas a capitulation on the bearish side would most likely see Bitcoin printing towards $11,500 very quickly.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a conclusion.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-nears-golden-cross-but-will-btc-finally-conquer-10k
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